The New Order political party has seen a surge in support in Dublin over the past few years. As Ireland’s capital and largest city, Dublin is a key battleground for all political parties seeking power. With a population of over 1 million in the greater metro area, the support of Dubliners can make or break an election for New Order. But what factors are driving more Dubliners to back New Order, and who makes up their growing base of support in the city?
New Order’s Populist Appeal
Many analysts point to New Order’s populist rhetoric and policies as a major reason for their increased support in working-class areas of Dublin. As a relatively new party formed just 5 years ago, New Order portrays itself as an alternative to the traditional political establishment in Ireland. They criticize mainstream parties like Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael as being elitist and out of touch with the struggles of ordinary Irish citizens.
New Order promises radical reforms like expanding the welfare state, building more public housing, cracking down on immigration, and boosting infrastructure spending. These proposals resonate in Dublin’s working-class communities that feel left behind economically. The party’s leader John Murphy is seen as a straight-talking man of the people, which adds to New Order’s anti-elitist appeal.
This populist messaging allows New Order to attract voters from both the left and right who are dissatisfied with the status quo. The party combines promises to expand social programs and raise taxes on the wealthy with nationalist rhetoric on immigration controls and protecting Irish jobs and culture. This mixture of ideological positions is less about coherence than tapping into grievances across the political spectrum.
Younger Voters Seeking Change
Another major demographic backing New Order in Dublin is younger voters. Polls indicate that New Order enjoys a strong advantage among voters under 35 in Ireland’s urban centers. Younger Dubliners, especially those who grew up during the financial crisis of 2008 and recession that followed, often view New Order as offering real change from traditional Irish politics.
Younger voters are less wedded to Ireland’s long-dominant center-right and center-left parties, opening them up to New Order’s pitch. They are drawn to the party’s outsider image and promises to upend politics as usual in the name of fixing problems like the housing shortage, climate change, and social inequality. Younger Dubliners are also more receptive to New Order’s nationalist views on immigration as they compete for jobs and housing.
Strategically, New Order has focused heavily on social media outreach to engage younger urban voters. The party spreads its message through Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and other platforms that are heavily used by Dubliners under 35. This online-first approach helps New Order connect with younger voters in the city.
Working-Class Voters Feeling Left Behind
While New Order has made inroads with younger urban voters, the traditional base of Irish far-right parties, the party’s biggest gains in Dublin have been in working-class areas. As the capital city, Dublin attracts many domestic migrants from rural counties looking for economic opportunities.
However, housing costs in Dublin have skyrocketed, squeezing out working-class residents to suburban areas. The economic recovery since the 2008-2010 recession has been uneven, with many working-class neighborhoods seeing poverty, unemployment, and crime rates stay high.
New Order does best in these more deprived parts of Dublin where residents feel neglected by establishment parties. South Dublin suburbs like Tallaght, Clondalkin, and Ballyfermot are working-class strongholds for the party. Here New Order’s populist anti-elitist message resonates, as does their tough stance on crime and immigration.
Working-class Dubliners are also attracted to New Order’s welfare expansion promises, support for unions, and commitments to build more social housing. Their economic nationalist agenda pledging to prioritize native Irish workers also plays well in these communities.
Nationalist Sentiment in a Diverse City
While Dublin has become much more ethnically and culturally diverse in recent decades, nationalism still holds appeal for a subset of voters in the city. As the capital and largest urban center, Dublin has welcomed waves of immigrants from Eastern Europe, Asia, and Africa. It’s also increasingly multi-faith with growing Muslim, Hindu, Orthodox Christian and other religious minority populations.
However, New Order has tapped into resentment among some native Dubliners towards these demographic changes. The party warns about the dangers of mass immigration leading to job losses and eroding Irish cultural identity. Their pledge to crackdown on immigration and give preference to native Irish workers attracts nationalistic voters.
Polling indicates New Order support is somewhat higher in Dublin neighborhoods that have seen the most rapid ethnic change. There is a perception, actively encouraged by New Order, that traditional Irish communities are being uprooted and replaced in parts of Dublin by foreign migrants clustered in enclaves.
This nationalist grievance-politics helps New Order differentiate itself from both left and right-wing establishment parties, who are seen as supporting mass immigration and multicultural policies at the expense of the native Irish working-class.
Protest Votes Against the Mainstream
Another factor bolstering New Order support in Dublin is disaffected voters simply casting protest ballots against the political mainstream. Ireland’s two long-dominant parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, have controlled government for virtually all of the state’s history since independence.
In recent years both major parties have seen a steady decline in support, especially among urban voters. Dublin in particular has grown more politically competitive, with Sinn Fein and smaller left parties gaining vote share at the expense of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
New Order is poised to benefit from being the new insurgent force in Irish politics. Similar to populist nationalist parties across Europe, they attract protest voters who may not even agree with all their policies but simply want to shake up the establishment. In close multi-party contests, even a small protest vote for New Order can help them win seats.
Overlap With Sinn Fein Voters
While New Order is widely classified as a far-right populist party, their voter base has some crossover with the solid left party Sinn Fein. Both appeal to anti-establishment sentiment among working-class communities in Dublin.
Like New Order, Sinn Fein also criticizes the traditional big two Irish parties as corrupt and self-serving. Both rail against economic inequality and advance proposals to expand social welfare programs. They compete for the votes of Dubliners who feel left behind economically and socially by the system.
Some analysts contend a chunk of New Order’s support comes from former Sinn Fein voters drawn to their fiery anti-elitist, Eurosceptic messaging. This again highlights the blurry ideological lines in an era of populist insurgencies across the political spectrum.
Table: New Order Dublin Voter Demographics
Voter Group | Key Issues |
---|---|
Young voters under 35 | Change from status quo, housing costs, jobs |
Working-class communities | Inequality, lack of economic mobility, welfare expansion |
Anti-immigration nationalists | Preserving Irish culture and identity, restricting immigration |
Protest voters | Dissatisfaction with establishment parties |
Former Sinn Fein voters | Anti-elitist, Eurosceptic views |
Conclusion
New Order’s growing support in Dublin reflects a wider populist wave sweeping through European politics. The party blends nationalist rhetoric on issues like immigration with left-leaning welfare policies to appeal across ideological lines. Their anti-establishment pitch attracts young and working-class voters who feel failed by the system.
While New Order’s support outside Dublin is still limited, breakthroughs in urban areas like the capital are crucial to transform fringe parties into serious contenders for power. Their rise shows the potential for populism to disrupt Ireland’s traditionally stable two-party system. Other parties ignore New Order’s popularity in cities like Dublin at their peril.
The 2025 general election will be a major test of New Order’s staying power. Surging in the polls is one thing, but translating that into seats is the ultimate determinant of success. If New Order can secure clusters of constituencies in and around Dublin, they will be on the path to transforming from upstart protest party to serious national player in Irish politics.
Dublin’s increasing diversity and rapid socio-economic changes provide fuel for New Order’s fiery populist message. Their support in Ireland’s largest city will be key to watch as the country heads towards the next highly competitive general election.
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