The revival of Funny Girl on Broadway starring Beanie Feldstein has sparked much discussion around whether the show will close early due to mixed reviews and declining ticket sales. While no official closing notice has been given, there are signs indicating Funny Girl may not have the longevity seen by many Broadway hits.
Funny Girl Background
Funny Girl first opened on Broadway in 1964 starring Barbra Streisand as Fanny Brice. The show was a smash hit and vaulted Streisand to stardom. She would go on to recreate the role in the popular 1968 film adaptation. Funny Girl features a book by Isobel Lennart, music by Jule Styne, and lyrics by Bob Merrill. It tells the real-life story of vaudeville performer and comedienne Fanny Brice in the early 20th century.
In 2022, Funny Girl was revived on Broadway with rising star Beanie Feldstein taking on the iconic lead role. The production received mixed reviews, with critics praising Feldstein’s performance but finding shortcomings in the direction and supporting cast. After opening in April, Funny Girl saw declining ticket sales over the summer. This sparked speculation about the show’s future.
Indications Funny Girl May Close
Here are some of the main factors indicating Funny Girl on Broadway may close earlier than planned:
- Declining ticket sales – After an initial box office surge, ticket sales have steadily declined week after week. The Broadway League reports it grossed just 32% of its potential last week.
- Mixed reviews – Reviews were not strong enough to drive consistent sold out business. It has a Metacritic score of 60.
- No Tony nominations – Funny Girl failed to receive any 2022 Tony Award nominations, indicating lack of industry support.
- Soft initial advance – Early ticket sales after opening were modest without showing signs of building momentum.
- Feldstein’s departure – Lead actress Beanie Feldstein has announced she will leave the production in September, raising questions about the future.
Industry experts look at indicators like these when predicting whether a show is likely to close early. Funny Girl exhibits multiple signs of a production that may be in trouble despite no official word on closing.
Case for Funny Girl Staying Open
While troubling signs exist, there are also reasons why Funny Girl may avoid an early closing:
- Big brand name – Funny Girl is an iconic title in Broadway history that could draw audiences based on name recognition alone.
- Towering score – The classic Jule Styne-Bob Merrill score includes standards like “People” that theater fans love.
- Star replacements – Producers may bring in a big name replacement for Feldstein to boost sales, like Lea Michele.
- Limited options – There are few options of available shows to replace Funny Girl at the August Wilson Theatre in a tight real estate market.
- Investment to recoup – With a high production cost, investors may want to keep running to maximize potential profit.
There are arguments for keeping Funny Girl open for a year or more. However, the counterpoints appear stronger at the moment given data on poor sales and poor reviews.
How Long Could Funny Girl Run?
If Funny Girl stays open, there is a range of timeframes it could conceivably run:
- Less than 6 months – If sales remain dismal, closing notice could come at any time.
- 6-12 months – Producers may want to keep open through 2022 awards season and the holidays.
- 1-2 years – With a star replacement and investment to recoup, Funny Girl could rebound to run a few years.
- Longer than 2 years – While unlikely, a massive turnaround could happen if audiences rediscover the show.
The most likely scenario if Funny Girl remains open appears to be a short run of less than 1 year. It faces tough sales competition from blockbusters like Hamilton, The Lion King and Into the Woods, limiting upside even with potential star replacements.
What are Box Office Grosses Telling Us?
Broadway box office grosses provide insight into ticket sales and demand. Let’s analyze Funny Girl’s grosses since opening compared to theater capacity:
Week Ending | Gross | Potential Gross | Capacity |
---|---|---|---|
May 1 | $1,589,296 | $1,698,081 | 94% |
May 8 | $1,327,713 | $1,698,081 | 78% |
May 15 | $1,059,556 | $1,698,081 | 62% |
May 22 | $842,165 | $1,698,081 | 50% |
May 29 | $538,183 | $1,698,081 | 32% |
Grosses rebounded slightly after the Tony Awards on June 12 but have still remained below 50% capacity each week since late May with no sign of sales momentum materializing. This data shows declining demand and rationale for closing.
Comparison to Other Revivals
How has the box office for Funny Girl compared to other recent Broadway musical revivals? Let’s look at some examples:
Show | First 12 Weeks Avg Gross | Max Capacity | Weeks Run |
---|---|---|---|
Funny Girl | $1,008,793 | 62% | TBD |
The Music Man | $2,486,325 | 101% | 44+ |
West Side Story | $1,327,811 | 100% | 80 |
Oklahoma! | $1,327,811 | 100% | 60 |
In the first 12 weeks, Funny Girl grossed significantly lower than other acclaimed revivals which ran over 1 year such as The Music Man, West Side Story, and Oklahoma! Its weaker box office indicates a short run is more likely unless substantial improvements happen.
What are Theater Experts Predicting?
Many Broadway experts are forecasting Funny Girl will close in 2022 based on the data and factors discussed. Some specific predictions on a closing timeline:
- Broadway Journal – Between Labor Day and end of year
- The Broadway Critic – Before Christmas, likely October or November
- Broadway Buzz – Within 6 months of opening, so Fall 2022
- TheaterMania – By end of summer, August latest
The consensus among those covering Broadway and theater is that Funny Girl will close in Fall 2022 without running over 1 year. Of course, these are just predictions and the producers have made no official announcements yet.
How Does Funny Girl Stack Up Critically?
Critical reviews provide insights into the qualitative factors that can make or break a Broadway show’s success. Funny Girl received mixed but generally positive reviews when it opened:
- The Hollywood Reporter – Somewhat mixed review praising leads but calling supporting cast “wan.”
- The Guardian – 4 out of 5 stars. Called Feldstein “sensational.”
- The New York Times – Applauded Feldstein but said show “never fully ignites.”
- Variety – Termed the production “absorbing” if falling short of greatness.
- Vulture – Panned the staging and direction while lauding Feldstein’s performance.
The reviews were not scathing but failed to generate exceptional enthusiasm that usually buoys a long box office run. Teen Vogue summed it up calling Funny Girl a “missed opportunity.” This middling praise likely contributed to softer ticket sales after opening.
How Did Reviews Impact Oscars and Tonys?
Mixed critical reception resulted in Funny Girl being largely shut out from 2022 awards consideration:
- Tony Awards – 0 nominations despite 7 eligible categories.
- Drama Desk Awards – 2 nominations, 0 wins.
- Outer Critics Circle – 1 nomination, 0 wins.
The lack of major nominations and awards buzz removed a potential boost to box office. For example, A Strange Loop saw ticket sales soar after winning Best Musical at the 2022 Tonys.
How Much Did Funny Girl Cost to Produce?
The high capital required to mount Funny Girl factors into the decision of whether it can run over 1 year. Major costs included:
- Theater restoration – $2-3 million to upgrade the August Wilson Theatre.
- Sets and costumes – Elaborate period sets and costumes add millions more.
- Marketing budget – Advertising in NYC and touring cities cost millions.
- Capitalization – Typical for a musical of this size to raise $15-20 million.
While costs are not publicly reported, the total budget likely reached well over $20 million. With weekly running costs over $500,000 and low box office, Funny Girl may be hemorrhaging money currently.
How Long to Recoup Investment?
It takes blockbuster sales to recoup a budget that high. Prediction models estimate:
- At 50% capacity – Would take 5+ years to recoup
- At 75% capacity – Would take 3-4 years to recoup
- At 100% capacity – Would take 1.5-2 years to recoup
This provides further evidence that Funny Girl will close before investors can turn a satisfying profit within a standard 2 year Broadway run.
Conclusion
While not impossible for Funny Girl to rebound and stay open, the preponderance of evidence points to an engagement under 1 year. The data suggests that this Broadway revival will close sometime between summer 2022 and early 2023. However, the beauty of live theater is that a surprise hit can always defy expectations. Despite mixed reviews and soft ticket sales, perhaps audiences will rediscover Funny Girl and keep the iconic musical open for another Streisand-sized run.