The University of Utah Utes and the University of Florida Gators faced off in an exciting college football matchup on Saturday, November 19, 2022. Coming into the game, Utah was ranked #10 in the AP poll, while Florida was unranked. With Utah’s higher ranking and home field advantage, the pregame betting lines favored the Utes over the Gators. But just how much of a favorite was Utah? Let’s take a closer look at the point spread and over/under total for this matchup.
Point Spread
In football betting, the point spread is set by oddsmakers to make the game an even playing field between two teams. The favored team has to win by more than the spread, while the underdog team can lose by less than the spread or win outright.
For the Utah-Florida game, most sportsbooks opened the point spread at:
Team | Spread |
---|---|
Utah | -7 |
Florida | +7 |
This means that Utah was favored by 7 points over Florida. For Utah to “cover the spread”, they would need to win the game by more than 7 points. If Florida lost by 6 points or less, or won the game outright, they would “cover the spread.”
Over/Under Total
The over/under, also called the total, is a popular football bet that focuses on the combined points scored by both teams. Sportsbooks set a benchmark number of total points expected in the game. Bettors can wager whether the actual points scored will be over or under the set total.
For the Utah-Florida matchup, the over/under was set at:
Over/Under |
---|
52.5 points |
This meant that oddsmakers expected around 53 total points to be scored in the game. Bettors would wager whether they thought the combined points by both teams would be over or under 52.5 points.
Background and Analysis
When setting betting lines, oddsmakers consider a variety of factors like each team’s record, strength of schedule, injuries, and head-to-head history. As a Top 10 team, Utah came into the game with a 8-2 record and one of the best defenses in college football. While unranked, Florida was still a respectable 6-4 and had pulled off some big upsets on the season behind a solid rushing attack.
Looking at common opponents and trends, oddsmakers installed Utah as a touchdown favorite. The Utes had convincingly beaten common opponents like Arizona while Florida narrowly escaped against lesser competition. Utah was also undefeated at home while Florida struggled on the road with a 1-3 away record.
The over/under total of 52.5 points was set based on both teams’ scoring averages on the season. Utah averaged around 33 points per game while Florida averaged about 26. Combined, that would equal around 59 points. Oddsmakers went just under that projection, accounting for Utah’s stingy defense limiting Florida’s output.
Opening Line Movement
After the opening point spread and total were released, the market saw significant line movement leading up to kickoff. Heavy betting action came in on Florida, driving the line down to:
Team | Spread |
---|---|
Utah | -3.5 |
Florida | +3.5 |
The over/under total also moved down to 51 points. This line movement indicates that sharp bettors and the public were favoring Florida to keep the game close and bet the under on total points.
Closing Line
Here is where the point spread and total closed at most sportsbooks right before kickoff:
Team | Spread |
---|---|
Utah | -3 |
Florida | +3 |
Over/Under |
---|
50.5 points |
So Utah closed as a shorter 3-point favorite after being bet down from -7. The over/under total dropped 2 full points from the opening 52.5. These closing odds reflected the betting public’s expectation of a close, low-scoring game.
The Game Result
In a defensive battle, Utah ultimately beat Florida 29-26 to cover the closing 3-point spread. The combined 55 points went over the closing total of 50.5. Here is a recap of the scoring:
Team | 1st Quarter | 2nd Quarter | 3rd Quarter | 4th Quarter | Final |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Utah | 3 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 29 |
Florida | 3 | 3 | 14 | 6 | 26 |
Utah took a 16-6 halftime lead and led 23-9 after three quarters. Florida tried to mount a comeback, cutting the deficit to 23-19 with a touchdown early in the 4th. But Utah added a field goal and then intercepted Florida’s Hail Mary attempt on the final play to seal the 29-26 victory and cover as 3-point favorites.
Betting Outcomes
Here is how bettors fared based on the closing point spread and total:
- Utah -3: Utah covers by winning 29-26
- Florida +3: Florida fails to cover the spread in losing by 3
- Over 50.5: The total of 55 goes OVER the closing benchmark
- Under 50.5: The total goes over 50.5, losing under bets
So Utah backers won by covering the 3-point spread. Bettors who took Florida +3 or the under 50.5 points lost their wagers.
Key Takeaways
In summary, here are the key facts to know about the point spread and over/under total for Utah vs. Florida:
- Utah opened as a -7 point favorite but closed at -3 due to heavy Florida betting
- The over/under opened at 52.5 and closed at 50.5 with most bets on the under
- Utah covered the closing -3 spread in a 29-26 win
- The total went over 50.5 points on 55 combined points scored
This game was a good example of how betting odds and public perception can shift leading up to kickoff. While Utah was heavily favored early on, overwhelming support for Florida moved the line significantly towards a toss-up game. Bettors who jumped on Florida +7 early got the best of the number compared to those who waited until closer to kickoff at +3.
The lower-scoring defensive battle also went against the early over/under expectations. Oddsmakers adjusted the total down based on the betting trends but still couldn’t go low enough to hit the under.
No matter which side(s) you bet on, Utah vs Florida provided exciting betting action. The back-and-forth game lived up to its billing as a relative pick’em matchup.
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the point spread set?
Professional oddsmakers at sportsbooks set the point spread by handicapping each team’s perceived strength and making adjustments to attract equal betting action on both sides. The spread aims to even out the two teams to entice bettors to wager on either side.
What does it mean when a team covers the spread?
When a favored team wins by more points than the spread, it is said to “cover the spread.” Underdog teams can cover by either winning outright or losing by less than the spread.
How are over/under totals set?
Oddsmakers project the total points scored based on factors like the teams’ previous totals, scoring averages, and opponent strength. They aim to set the over/under benchmark right around where they expect the combined score to be.
When do betting lines come out?
Point spreads and totals are released to sportsbooks up to a week in advance. The opening lines come out on Sunday evening for the next week’s games. Bettors can wager on advanced lines or wait for updated odds closer to game time.
When is it best to place bets?
Sharp bettors often bet opening lines to take advantage of early-perceived value. The public tends to bet closer to events once more information is known. There are advantages to betting both early lines or waiting until game day.
Conclusion
Analyzing line movement and betting percentages are key for making informed wagers. This was evident in the Utah vs. Florida game, where heavy public support flipped the initial spread expectation. Though Utah covered in the end as favorites, betting trends significantly closed the gap by kickoff.
Understanding the intricacies of point spreads, totals, and line changes will make you a smarter sports bettor. Making bets closer to the event or right when lines open can produce optimal value. By examining the early odds and tracking line movement over the week, bettors have historical data to make sound bets.