Ticket prices for concerts can fluctuate leading up to the event, with the general trend being that prices decrease as the concert date gets closer. However, many factors influence ticket prices, so the pattern is not always predictable. Key factors that impact prices include the artist’s popularity, venue size, day of the week, overall ticket sales, and more.
In the opening weeks when tickets first go on sale, prices typically start high. During the initial rush, devoted fans snap up tickets at premium rates. This lets the artists and promoters capitalize on pent-up demand. However, as the event date approaches, they adjust prices based on sales momentum and seek to fill remaining seats. The supply of unsold tickets increases, giving buyers more bargaining power. Sellers become more motivated to offload inventory, leading to falling prices. Yet other times, an unexpected surge in demand could actually cause prices to increase as availability declines.
Below we’ll explore in more detail how ticket prices generally trend as the event date nears, along with examples. We’ll also look at why prices don’t always follow the expected declining pattern.
How Ticket Prices Typically Decline Over Time
In most cases, ticket prices will be highest when they first go on sale to the public. Prices are elevated to take advantage of excited fans who want to guarantee they can attend. These enthusiastic buyers are willing to pay more to get seats before they sell out. During this early stage, prices can be two to three times above what they will be closer to the show date.
Steep Drops in the First Month
During the first weeks after tickets go on sale, prices usually see a steep decline. Data from Ticketmaster shows that on average, prices to major rock concerts decrease around 30% in the first month.[1] This drop is steeper than what happens over subsequent months.
The initial price slash aims to stimulate additional sales after the early rush. Lower prices bring in more budget-conscious fans and those who were waiting to see if better deals would emerge. Dropping prices is a lever promoters and artists can pull to fill more seats, cover production costs, and maximize overall revenue.
Gradual Declines over Remaining Months
Following the initial 30% average drop, ticket prices will continue decreasing gradually as the event date approaches. However, the declines are smaller with each passing month compared to that initial plunge.
In the final month leading up to the concert, prices tend to experience one last discounting push. Sellers become eager to unload remaining tickets to generate some revenue rather than letting seats go empty. In the final weeks, prices can sometimes fall up to 25% more compared to 30 days out.[2]
This general trend of declining prices is like happy hour at a bar. Early arrivals pay more, but latecomers enjoy better deals. Of course, just as happy hour prices only drop so low, tickets have a price floor too. Venues won’t sell below costs after factoring in artist fees, production, and overhead.
Last Minute Surges
In the final days before the event, prices may spike back up again if tickets are scarce. People who procrastinated may find last minute prices inflated rather than discounted. Fear of missing out triggers impulse buys at elevated rates. However, this last surge only happens if tickets aren’t readily available.
For lower-demand shows, prices keep falling rather than rebounding. The best deals sometimes emerge on the day of the event, often through unofficial resale sites. Sellers have no choice but to take whatever they can get, even below face value.
Examples of Prices Declining Over Time
Looking at specific concert examples illustrates how prices decline as show dates approach.
Justin Bieber “Purpose” Tour
When tickets for Justin Bieber’s Minneapolis stop first went on sale in November 2015, nosebleed seats started around $116.[3] In subsequent months, prices fell to the $50-$60 range based on resale sites. Within two weeks of the concert date that July, upper level seats dropped under $20. Demand was high initially but softened over time, leading to dramatic price cuts.
Ariana Grande “Sweetener” Tour
At Ariana Grande’s 2019 Chicago concert, the cheapest tickets were around $175 upon release.[4] Over the next six months, prices dropped to $60 on average. Even lower $30 seats emerged in the last month before the show. As with Bieber, Grande’s popularity justified high initial pricing. But excess inventory later forced reductions.
The Rolling Stones “No Filter” Tour
The iconic Rolling Stones also show the declining price pattern, but less drastically. In May 2018, cheapest tickets to their Boston show were $95.[5] By September, similar seats were $65. In the last week, prices dipped under $50. Since the Stones have an older and loyal fanbase, prices didn’t need to drop as aggressively. But unsold tickets still required discounts.
These cases demonstrate how prices evolve in the months leading up to concerts. Artists with youth appeal tend to have steeper declines compared to legacy acts. But either way, prices generally moderate over time as demand is satisfied and inventory clears.
When Ticket Prices Don’t Follow the Downward Trend
Despite the overall pattern, ticket prices don’t always decrease smoothly towards the event date. Several scenarios can disrupt the downward curve.
Sell-Out Performances
If tickets sell out completely soon after release, prices have nowhere to go but up. High demand and limited supply let resellers charge huge premiums. For example, tickets to Adele’s first tour in five years routinely resold for several times face value.[6] Since all shows immediately sold out, scarcity drove up resale prices rather than reducing them over time.
Underestimating Demand
If promoters underestimate interest in a concert, they may need to raise prices to slow sales. Otherwise all tickets would sell out immediately, leaving money on the table. Dynamic pricing algorithms detect surges in demand and adjust prices upwards. Beyonc??’s 2016 Formation Tour employed this tactic after initial dates sold out in minutes.[7] Subsequent tickets were priced 35% higher to better align with demand.
Quick Sell-Outs in Smaller Markets
When top artists visit smaller cities, the limited supply of tickets can lead to quick sell-outs. If a band is big enough to fill an arena in Los Angeles or New York, they may overwhelm mid-size venue capacities elsewhere. Fewer available seats makes tickets scarce, keeping resale prices high. Prices in Portland aren’t likely to drop for a show that instantly sold out.
VIP Packages and Platinum Seats
VIP ticket packages and “platinum seats” are premium offerings sold at fixed prices. These seats located closest to the stage don’t follow normal discounting patterns. Front row and backstage upgrades let die-hard fans pay for exclusive perks at inflated costs. These premium segments are intentionally priced high and don’t reduce over time.
Resale Sites Withholding Inventory
Some resellers purchase large blocks of tickets only to withhold them. This artificial supply constraint keeps prices inflated.[8] These hoarding tactics trick fans into paying more out of fear of missing out. If enough brokers withhold inventory, declines near the event can be muted.
Rising Costs
Higher artist fees, production expenses, or vendor costs can force increases in ticket face values over time. These rising input costs have to be passed onto consumers. For example, if a venue gets a new high-priced concession deal, they may bump up prices late in the game to achieve profit goals.
Factors Impacting the Magnitude of Price Changes
While the overall downward price trajectory remains constant, certain variables affect how much and how fast prices decline:
Artist Popularity
The hottest acts can maintain high pricing, while lesser-known artists need to discount aggressively. Established stars with loyal followers don’t have to slash prices drastically. But emerging artists may require heavy promotions to build an audience. Beyonc?? knows her fans will pay up, while a new band needs to incentivize listeners to give them a try.
Venue Size
Larger venues have more tickets to fill, requiring greater price flexibility. Selling out a 500-seat club is easier than filling a 50,000-seat stadium. Promoters for major artists focus on reducing prices over time to maximize turnout. More intimate shows may not need to cut prices if demand is consistent.
Weeknight vs. Weekend
Weeknight concerts are less desirable and require lower prices to attract attendees on work nights. Friday and Saturday shows can sustain higher pricing since most fans don’t have work conflicts. Maroon 5 drops prices more aggressively for a Tuesday show in Oakland than a Saturday in Los Angeles.
Market Size
As mentioned above, smaller markets have less inventory, allowing for quick sell-outs. Large cities have naturally higher demand plus larger venues to fill. This enables greater price reductions over time for big market concerts.
Competitor Events
If another concert is scheduled nearby around the same date, it creates competition. Fans only have so much time and money to spend on shows. More choices will force promoters to keep prices in check rather than riding on loyalty. They want to incentivize attendance at their event over others.
Opening Acts
The quality of opening acts partly justifies ticket prices. A popular supporting band makes the full package more appealing. Weaker openers may require the headliners to reduce costs to keep fans interested. The opening roster can shape pricing strategy.
Timing Relative to Album Releases
Tours immediately following new album releases have high demand. Fans are eager to hear new songs live. But as the album gets older, ticket prices may need to be lowered to renew interest. Tours can help drive album sales, or albums can drive tour demand. Their synergy determines optimal pricing.
Day of Week
As noted earlier, weekends have higher demand. Fridays and Saturdays can sustain elevated prices, while Sundays through midweek require discounting to attract attendees. Demand fluctuation during the week leads to variable pricing.
How Concert Promoters Set and Adjust Prices
The concert promotion industry uses sophisticated data and algorithms to price tickets optimally. Pricing objectives balance maximizing revenues overall with filling seats at each show. By tracking sales momentum and forecasting demand, promoters dynamically adjust pricing to hit these targets.
Segmenting the Venue
Promoters divide venues into pricing zones based on seat location quality. Front floor seats get premium pricing, while upper decks and extremes have discounts. By segmenting the venue, promoters can cater to fans with different budget tolerances. Initial prices are set using zone multipliers relative to front row face values. For example, rear balcony seats may be priced at 50% of floor tickets initially.
Monitoring Sales Patterns
Analytics track ticket purchases by zone in real-time. Sellers can see which sections are moving fast and which have stagnant sales. This helps them reprice lagging zones to spur sales. Sections selling quicker get smaller price cuts, while struggling zones see steeper declines.
Forecasting Demand
Predictive modeling estimates future sales based on early buying activity. Analytics calculate the sell-out date at current prices. Promoters reprice to either accelerate or extend this projected sell-out date if needed. Moving the date earlier increases revenues, while pushing it back ensures filling seats.
Benchmarking History
Looking at past concerts for the same act and similar artists informs pricing tactics. Sellers examine what price points stimulated sales at previous shows under various conditions. This benchmarking anchors their pricing strategies.
Monitoring the Secondary Market
Reseller sites provide a look into real-time demand. If resale prices far exceed face values, it signals underpricing. Resellers profit due to insufficient pricing. Promoters may raise prices if secondary market prices reveal overlooked demand. But if resale activity is soft, promoters know prices need to be cut to sell direct.
Role of Scarcity and Perceived Value
Beyond pure supply and demand economics, behavioral factors like scarcity and perceived value impact pricing. Promoters tactfully create a sense of urgency and exclusivity that makes higher initial prices acceptable.
Scarcity
When a hot show first goes on sale, limits are imposed on how many tickets individuals can buy. Restricting supply makes it harder to get seats, playing up scarcity. Fans fear missing out on a rare opportunity. This drives them to pay premium rates while available. Promoters intentionally slow down early sales to maintain the perception of scarce tickets.
Presales
Before the general public sale, presales for fan club members and credit card holders create excitement. Restricting initial access rallies the hardcore fans who are most price insensitive. These loyalists pay the highest rates, allowing promoters to capitalize on their fervor. Presales also generate buzz and media coverage, boosting general public demand.
Counting Down to Onsale
The ticking countdown clock on ticketing sites builds anxious anticipation before tickets get released. Concert announcements strategically come weeks before the onsale date. This delay and countdown hypes up fans and gets them ready to pay. A sense of competition also takes hold, where fans want to buy before missing the chance.
Perceived Value
Through pricing tiers and packaging, promoters frame the event as a rare opportunity with inherent value. Front row VIP packages at $500+ signal to fans that the experience is a precious luxury they can’t miss. Top-tier pricing sets an anchor that makes even rear balcony seats seem like a reasonable deal in comparison.
Does It Make Sense to Wait for the Lowest Price?
Should you play the waiting game to buy the absolute cheapest ticket? Or lock in seats early despite higher prices? A few considerations for fans on the fence:
Peace of Mind
Buying earlier provides certainty that you won’t miss out. You can relax knowing your spot is secured. Waiting until the last minute risks sold out shows and being left empty-handed. Paying more for peace of mind can be worthwhile.
Ticket Quality
The first tickets sold are generally the best seats. Waiting means you may be stuck with the leftovers in the back. Paying more gets you closer to the action. As the concert nears, beggars can’t be choosers in terms of seat location.
Price Differences
While early prices are inflated, they eventually drop to reasonable levels. The difference between initial and final prices may only be $20-$50 in many cases. Saving some money may not outweigh the benefits of buying early.
Reseller Fees
Last minute tickets often must be bought through resellers who add fees. Paying a bit more upfront directly through the box office avoids these annoying fees.
Travel Costs
If buying closer to the event, airfares and hotel rates go up. Higher travel costs can erase any savings from cheaper tickets. Booking earlier locks in lower transportation prices.
Sell-Out Risk
Less popular shows may not decline much in price. In-demand concerts could sell out completely. Waiting for deals is risky if it results in missing the chance to attend. Limited availability trumps cheaper prices.
Schedule Coordination
People’s schedules fill up over time. Buying well in advance locks in plans while your calendar is open. Scrambling to attend last minute may be difficult logistically.
In most cases, moderate early discounts outweigh chasing the lowest price. But budget-focused fans keeping timing flexible can grab deals.
Conclusion
Concert ticket prices tend to decline over time, but not always in a predictable straight line. Beyond the initial 30% average drop in the first month, discounts vary based on many interlocking factors. Demand surges can cause increases, while excess supply forces last minute bargains. Savvy fans track pricing trends to time their purchases advantageously. Patiently awaiting the final flash sale can offer huge savings. But buyers wanting the best seats and peace of mind commonly pay moderate early premiums for the privilege. Understanding the nuances of concert pricing dynamics helps inform an optimal personal ticketing strategy.