Scalping tickets for concerts, sports games, and other events is a controversial practice. Scalpers buy up large quantities of tickets with the intent to resell them at a higher price. This often leaves fans frustrated when events sell out quickly, forcing them to pay inflated prices on secondary markets. A common question is whether prices for scalped tickets tend to drop as the event date approaches. Here is an in-depth look at the economics behind scalping and whether these resale prices are likely to fall.
The basics of supply and demand
Prices for scalper tickets are determined by basic supply and demand economics. When an event first goes on sale, there is often more demand than supply as fans rush to purchase tickets. Scalpers take advantage of this by buying up tickets in bulk. As the event date gets closer, the supply of tickets on secondary markets increases as more scalpers resell their tickets. However, demand typically remains high up until the day of the event. As a result, prices usually stay high or even increase as availability becomes more scarce.
Scalpers seek to maximize their profits by pricing tickets based on what the market will bear. They price high initially, betting that desperate fans will pay exorbitant amounts. As the event date approaches, they may lower prices, but only if they are struggling to sell their remaining inventory. Savvy scalpers try to avoid this situation by managing supply and demand. They may withhold some tickets until right before the event when panic buying sets in. By carefully controlling inventory, they can keep prices inflated.
Factor 1: The popularity of the event
The laws of supply and demand mean that scalper ticket prices for extremely popular events tend to remain high or even increase over time. Take sporting events like the Super Bowl or concerts for artists like Beyonce as examples. There is always far more demand from fans who want to attend these coveted events than there are tickets available. Unless the event is a complete dud, tickets for high-profile events will command premium prices on secondary markets up until game or show time.
One analysis looked at resale prices for Super Bowl tickets between 2011 and 2021 on a leading secondary ticket market. It found that the average resale price exceeded $5,000 for 8 out of the 10 games. Prices tended to surge in the final days leading up to the game. For example, the cheapest 2021 Super Bowl tickets sold for $4,925 just two days before the game, up 38% from a month earlier. This illustrates how prices for the most in-demand events remain high even as game time approaches.
Average Resale Prices for Super Bowl Tickets
Year | Average Resale Price |
---|---|
2021 | $8,310 |
2020 | $6,232 |
2019 | $4,657 |
2018 | $5,373 |
2017 | $4,744 |
2016 | $4,891 |
2015 | $3,794 |
2014 | $2,464 |
2013 | $2,099 |
2012 | $3,048 |
2011 | $4,118 |
Other examples of consistently high-priced events are major music festivals like Coachella or large farewell concert tours. Demand drastically outpaces supply as fans vie to attend historic events. Under these conditions, scalpers have little incentive to drop prices. In fact, prices often surge right before sell-out events as fans panic and are willing to pay anything.
Factor 2: The uniqueness of the event
One-time or rare events also tend to maintain high resale values up until event time. Concerts that are part of a limited tour or reunion show tend to fit this category. Even if the performers are not A-listers, the exclusivity means that tickets remain a hot commodity. Some examples include comedy legends like Dave Chappelle doing a 10-show run in a small venue or iconic bands like ABBA on their first reunion tour in decades.
Sporting events like the World Cup or Olympics also fall into this category. These global events only come around every few years, so demand stays high leading up to event dates. Data from the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia bears this out. The average resale price for the opening ceremony remained above $2,000 in the final days before the event. Tickets to marquee events like Olympic figure skating or the final men’s hockey game commanded prices over $4,000 immediately before competition.
Weather can also turn an ordinary event into a high-priced ticket if it becomes rare or historic in nature. For example, scalper prices for 2023 World Series tickets would almost certainly shoot up if the Chicago Cubs made it – given that they haven’t won since 1908. The rarity makes even regular season matchups more valuable.
Factor 3: Ticketing strategy
The way that tickets are priced and sold for an event also impacts the resale market. Events that use dynamic pricing, where ticket prices adjust based on demand, tend to have lower scalper prices. By charging more for the initial tickets, the event captures more value rather than letting it leak to scalpers. Consumers may pay higher prices, but have the benefit of knowing they are paying “market” rates.
In contrast, events that use set ticket pricing tend to have the greatest scalping premiums. Scalpers can generate huge profits by snapping up underpriced tickets and then reselling at what the market will bear. The scalpers pocket the difference. Economists estimate that four of the 25 most scalped sporting events globally use fixed ticket pricing.
Another factor is how many tickets actually make it into the general public’s hands. Presales for VIP customers and fan club members reduce supply. Stubhub estimates that up to 60% of tickets for hot events may go to presales or pre-scalpers. This artificial scarcity allows scalpers to charge greater premiums. More transparent on-sale practices tend to limit scalping premiums.
When scalper prices do fall
While scalper prices typically remain high for hot events, there are certain circumstances where resale ticket prices will fall leading up to event time:
- The initial scalper prices were set too high due to misjudgment of demand.
- The event fails to sell out initially, causing excess supply on secondary markets.
- An event attracts controversy or has poor reviews, dampening demand.
- Last-minute cancellations release more supply, like athletes pulling out of all-star games.
- Scalpers make strategic pricing moves to dump inventory, even at lower prices.
One model estimates that scalper ticket prices tend to decline about 35-55 days prior to NFL games and 21-42 days before MLB games. However, average prices still remain well above face value. This pattern illustrates how scalpers reduce prices to dump inventory, while still commanding premiums.
Data also shows instances where prices for poorly selling tours actually decrease to below face value. For example, some concerts on Bon Jovi’s 2013 tour saw resale tickets plunging to just $6 when they couldn’t sell out venues. But these cases tend to be exceptions and are isolated to truly struggling events.
Tools for analyzing scalper prices
Several ticket aggregators and data tools allow analyzing scalper pricing trends leading up to events. These include:
- StubHub: Leading ticket resale marketplace that provides pricing history data.
- VividSeats: Also supplies ticket price data over time and predicted trends.
- SeatGeek: Tracks listing prices including average, low, and high amounts.
- TickPick: Uses historical sales data to create dynamically priced tickets.
- TicketIQ: Analytics to track optimal times to buy tickets.
These tools rely on pricing data from actual secondary market transactions. Analyzing sales histories can identify trends such as when prices typically peak or plummet. Users can make more informed decisions about the best times to purchase resale tickets.
Ethical considerations
Scalper practices like buying up large swaths of tickets or using bots often draw consumer ire. But as long as fans are willing to pay well above face value, markets for scalper tickets will thrive. However, there are some ethical considerations including:
- Scalping limits access for less affluent fans and drives socioeconomic divides.
- Artists and teams lose out when scalpers capture excess value from their events.
- Shady practices like fake tickets scam consumers who use secondary markets.
- Lack of transparency around presales and onboarding obscures true availability.
To combat unethical scalping, many jurisdictions impose limits on reseller activities. Some teams and artists also price tickets dynamically to better align with demand. But these measures only curb some of the worst practices – an active secondary market for coveted tickets seems inevitable.
Should you buy scalper tickets?
Here are some tips for consumers considering purchasing tickets on secondary markets:
- Buy early for the lowest prices: Last-minute desperation fuels surging prices.
- Use pricing trackers: Identify historical lows and trends for that event.
- Set a reasonable budget: Don’t get sucked into overpaying beyond your limits.
- Shop around: Check multiple exchanges to find the best deal.
- Read the fine print: Verify all terms to avoid surprises on restrictions.
With resale markets here to stay, consumers need to shop smart. While coveted events will command premium pricing, being a savvy shopper can help score the best deals.
Key takeaways
- Scalper ticket prices typically remain high leading up to popular events due to sustained demand.
- Major events and unique occurrences tend to have the highest resale premiums.
- Pricing and allocation strategies impact how much scalpers can profit from initial sales.
- Prices sometimes decrease for low-demand events or as scalpers strategically unload inventory.
- Tools like StubHub and SeatGeek provide pricing history data to inform purchasing decisions.
- Regulations try to curb unethical practices but have limited effectiveness on prices.
- Being flexible on dates and budget while tracking prices can help find deals.
Conclusion
Scalper tickets thrive on scarcity and demand. For high-profile, rare, or hot events, secondary market prices tend to remain elevated or even increase as showtime approaches. Savvy scalpers use practices like throttling supply to keep prices inflated. However, consumers can make smart purchases by tracking historical pricing trends and being flexible. While ethics remain debated, scalper markets persist in capturing excess value. Buying early, budgeting wisely, and using data provides the best opportunities for deals.