Upgrading to first class can be a great way to enhance your flight experience and make your trip more comfortable and enjoyable. As with most things, the pricing for first class upgrades is based on supply and demand. So does that mean upgrades get cheaper the closer you get to departure as airlines try to sell unsold first class seats? Let’s take a look.
The short answer
In general, yes, first class upgrades do tend to get cheaper closer to departure as airlines seek to fill empty premium cabin seats. However, there are many factors that determine upgrade pricing, so it’s not always a guarantee. Flexibility and monitoring prices are key to scoring a deal.
How airline pricing models work
Airlines use complex revenue management systems to set fares and upgrade prices in order to maximize revenue. Prices are set based on predicted demand, historical booking patterns, competitor pricing and remaining seat availability.
First class fares are typically highest when the flight first opens for booking, then decrease as more economy seats are sold. A certain number of first class seats are held back to be sold at a premium up until departure.
In the final weeks and days before departure, airlines will aggressively price first class upgrades to sell off any unsold premium inventory. This last-minute availability presents an opportunity for travelers to score significant discounts compared to prices months earlier.
When do the cheapest first class upgrades become available?
There is no hard and fast rule on when the very cheapest last-minute first class upgrades can be purchased. It depends on the specific flight and how demand is shaping up. However, here are some general guidelines on timing:
- 2-3 weeks out: Prices are still high, but start to gradually decline as departure nears.
- 1-2 weeks out: More significant discounting as airline starts reducing fares to fill seats.
- Under 1 week: The steepest discounts are offered within the final days and even hours before departure.
Savvy travelers monitor prices daily during the final weeks before their flight to try and catch award inventory at the lowest points. Being flexible with your travel dates can also help score a deal on premium seats.
How much can first class upgrades drop?
The amount of discounting varies greatly depending on the route, demand, competitor pricing and other factors. While not guaranteed, first class upgrades typically see discounts of:
- 25-50% in the final 2-3 weeks before departure
- 50-75% within the last 1-2 weeks pre-departure
- 75% or more in the last few days/hours before departure
The very best deals often come around 48-72 hours before departure when airlines engage in aggressive discounting to fill premium seats. The discounts can be significant, often hundreds of dollars off typical pricing. However, availability at these lowest rates is not always guaranteed.
When do airlines stop selling first class upgrades?
Airlines generally stop selling first class upgrades at the gate closure time, which is usually 15-30 minutes prior to the scheduled departure. However, they can choose to stop sales earlier for operational reasons, or if first class sells out entirely.
Some airlines such as Delta and United also offer day-of-departure upgrades at check-in if seats are still unsold. These upgrades are instant purchases made at airport kiosks on the day of travel.
Booking last-minute day-of-departure upgrades runs the risk of first class already being sold out. But for the most flexibility, travelers can keep monitoring upgrade prices until the very last minute.
Case study: typical first class pricing on a sample US route
To illustrate the decreasing price trend for first class upgrades, here’s a look at hypothetical pricing on a cross-country US route between New York City and Los Angeles:
Time Before Departure | First Class Upgrade Price |
---|---|
6 months out | $800 |
3 months out | $700 |
1 month out | $600 |
2 weeks out | $450 |
48 hours out | $250 |
As you can see, the hypothetical first class upgrade price decreases steadily as departure approaches. In the final few days, the price drops dramatically – almost 70% off the price 6 months out.
Again, actual fares will vary based on many factors. But this illustrates the general pricing trends for premium cabin upgrades.
Tips for finding cheap first class upgrades
Here are some tips for finding discounted first class upgrades close to departure:
- Book economy flexible fares – First class upgrades are only available with flexible, refundable economy tickets.
- Check airline sites frequently – Monitor your airline’s website directly for sales and flash discounts on upgrades.
- Use expert flight alerts – Sign up for alerts from services like ExpertFlyer and Seat Alerts to be notified of discount award availability.
- Be flexible on routing – Consider nearby airports or indirect flights which may offer better first class availability.
- Use miles to upgrade – Look for discounted mileage upgrade awards within 2 weeks of departure.
- Ask at check-in – Airlines sometimes offer unsold first class seats at check-in for very low rates.
With persistence and flexibility, you can greatly increase your chances of finding a discounted first class upgrade.
Why first class discounts are not guaranteed
While first class fares often see deep discounts near departure, rock-bottom pricing is never a sure thing. Here’s why:
- High demand routes – Popular business routes can sell out first class very early.
- Holiday periods – Increased leisure demand reduces discounting around holidays and weekends.
- Irregular operations – Flight changes and cancellations resulting in rebooked passengers can fill first class.
- Revenue management – Airlines may choose to limit discounting if yields are already high.
The best deals require flexibility, monitoring various options and a bit of luck in finding award seats. But those willing to put in the effort can often score big savings on first class upgrades.
Risks of waiting too long to upgrade
While significant discounts are possible on first class fares close to departure, there are some risks of waiting too long to upgrade:
- First class sells out entirely
- Prices go back up if a surge of last-minute business travelers book premium seats
- The flight is changed or canceled, affecting upgrade eligibility
- Miles needed for an upgrade award are no longer available
- Companions may not be seated together in first class
Savvy travelers balance seeking the lowest fares with upgrading early enough to get their preferred seats and flight times.
Other ways to get discounted first class
In addition to upgrading close to departure, there are a few other ways to get deals on first class airfare:
- Use airline miles from co-branded credit cards
- Take advantage of sales and promotions
- Book first class connecting flights
- Target airlines which oversell first class
- Travel during shoulder seasons
- Sign up for airline deal alerts
Flexibility and planning ahead are key to scoring reduced rates in the premium cabin.
The bottom line
While not guaranteed, first class fares often see significant drops in the final weeks leading up to departure as airlines slash prices to fill premium seats. The very best deals are usually available within the last 1-2 weeks and even up until the day of travel. However, high demand and tightly managed airline revenue systems can also limit discounting in many cases. With smart strategy, persistence and a bit of luck, travelers can find some excellent last minute deals on upgrading to first class.