The Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders are set to face off in an AFC West divisional matchup on Monday, October 16, 2023. The Chargers are currently 4-2 and second in the division behind the Kansas City Chiefs, while the Raiders are 1-4 and last in the AFC West. With a win, the Chargers can create more separation between themselves and the Raiders in the standings. But who is favored to win thisWeek 6 matchup?
Chargers’ Key Advantages
The Chargers come into this game with a few key advantages over the Raiders:
- Better record (4-2 vs. 1-4)
- Playing at home
- Strong passing offense led by Justin Herbert
- Stingy defense allowing just 19.5 points per game
At 4-2, the Chargers have shown they can win games consistently, while the 1-4 Raiders have struggled mightily. Home field advantage also favors LA, as the Chargers are difficult to beat at SoFi Stadium.
Justin Herbert leads a dangerous passing attack that is averaging 272.5 yards per game through the air, 6th best in the NFL. Herbert has thrown for 15 touchdowns with just 3 interceptions so far. Meanwhile, the Chargers defense has held opponents to just 19.5 points per game, which ranks 5th in the league. This stingy defense could pose problems for Derek Carr and the Raiders offense.
Raiders’ Key Advantages
While the Chargers appear to have more strengths heading into this matchup, the Raiders do have a few areas where they could have an edge:
- Strong running game led by Josh Jacobs
- Talented receivers like Davante Adams and Hunter Renfrow
- Revenge motivation after Week 1 loss to LA
Josh Jacobs is having a stellar season, currently ranking 4th in the NFL with 490 rushing yards. If the Raiders can get their ground game going, it may help neutralize the Chargers pass rush and allow Carr to take some shots downfield.
Carr has two elite targets in Davante Adams and Hunter Renfrow. Adams has been slowed by injuries but still has 17 catches for 189 yards and 3 TDs. Renfrow is always a threat out of the slot. This receiving duo could exploit a Chargers secondary that has been prone to giving up big plays at times.
Finally, revenge could be a factor here. The Raiders are certainly motivated after the Chargers went into Las Vegas in Week 1 and earned a 24-19 victory. Carr and company would love to return the favor on the Chargers’ home turf.
Betting Odds and Spread
According to most sportsbooks, the Chargers are currently 6.5 to 7-point favorites over the Raiders in this matchup. Here are the latest betting odds:
Sportsbook | Chargers Spread | Raiders Spread |
---|---|---|
FanDuel | -7 | +7 |
DraftKings | -6.5 | +6.5 |
Caesars | -7.5 | +7.5 |
As home favorites, the Chargers need to win by at least a touchdown for bettors taking them to cover the spread. Meanwhile, Raiders bettors need Las Vegas to either win outright or lose by 6 points or less.
The over/under point total is currently set at 51.5 to 52 points across most sportsbooks. This suggests oddsmakers are expecting an evenly-matched contest that could feature quite a bit of scoring.
Game Prediction
The Chargers are favored for good reason heading into this matchup given their strengths on both sides of the ball. However, the Raiders are desperate for a win and certainly have enough talent on offense to keep this game close.
Look for Justin Herbert and the Chargers passing attack to have success moving the ball against a struggling Raiders defense. But also expect Josh Jacobs and the Raiders run game to put up points against LA’s defense. Davante Adams is always capable of making game-changing plays as well if he suits up.
This AFC West rivalry game should remain tight into the second half before the Chargers eventually pull away for a 38-27 victory. The Raiders will look better than they have all season but it still won’t be enough to overcome Herbert and the balanced Chargers.
Key Stats and Players
Here are some key stats and players to know that could impact this AFC West showdown:
Chargers Offense
- QB Justin Herbert has 1,936 passing yards (4th in NFL) with 15 TDs and 3 INTs.
- RB Austin Ekeler has 404 rushing yards and 3 TDs plus 29 receptions.
- WR Mike Williams has 471 receiving yards (8th in NFL) and 4 TDs.
- TE Gerald Everett has 305 receiving yards and 2 TDs.
Herbert is establishing himself as one of the elite young quarterbacks in the league. Ekeler is a dual threat out of the backfield. And Williams leads a deep receiving corps. This offense has playmakers at every level.
Raiders Offense
- QB Derek Carr has 1,272 passing yards with 8 TDs and 4 INTs.
- RB Josh Jacobs has 490 rushing yards (4th in NFL) and 3 TDs.
- WR Davante Adams has 189 receiving yards and 3 TDs in just 3 games.
- WR Hunter Renfrow has 240 receiving yards and 2 TDs.
Carr is capable of big games but needs to cut down on turnovers. Jacobs is carrying the offense right now on the ground. Adams and Renfrow are dangerous receiving threats both inside and outside.
Chargers Defense
- OLB Khalil Mack has 6 sacks (T-4th in NFL) and 1 forced fumble.
- S Derwin James Jr. has 2 INTs and 1.5 sacks.
- CB J.C. Jackson has 1 INT and 4 passes defended.
Mack has provided a major boost to the pass rush after coming over from Chicago. James is once again showing his playmaking abilities all over the field. And Jackson is a lockdown corner when healthy.
Raiders Defense
- DE Maxx Crosby has 4 sacks and 2 forced fumbles.
- CB Nate Hobbs has 1 INT and 5 passes defended.
- DT Andrew Billings has 15 tackles (12 solo).
Crosby continues to be productive getting after the quarterback off the edge. Hobbs has emerged as the top cover man in the secondary. Billings helps anchor the defensive line.
Recent Meetings
Here is how the previous two meetings between the Chargers and Raiders have played out:
2022 Week 1: Chargers 24, Raiders 19
The Chargers went into Las Vegas in Week 1 this season and came away with a 24-19 victory over the Raiders. Justin Herbert passed for 279 yards and 3 touchdowns while Khalil Mack had 3 sacks in his Chargers debut. Davante Adams had 10 catches for 141 yards and 1 TD in his first game with the Raiders but Vegas couldn’t overcome 4 turnovers.
2021 Week 18: Raiders 35, Chargers 32 (OT)
In the 2021 regular season finale, the Raiders prevailed 35-32 in overtime on a walk-off field goal by Daniel Carlson. Derek Carr passed for 186 yards and 2 TDs while Zay Jones had 6 catches for 107 yards. Justin Herbert threw for 383 yards for the Chargers but LA melted down late with a pick-six and penalties allowing Las Vegas to send the game to overtime.
The last two meetings between these division rivals have been wildly entertaining. Fans should expect another competitive battle this time around as well.
Outlook and Prediction
The Chargers appear to have the advantage at the skill positions led by Justin Herbert and their trio of talented receivers in Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer. If the offensive line can hold up and give Herbert time, LA should be able to put points on the board.
Defensively, the Chargers have playmakers like Khalil Mack, Derwin James Jr. and J.C. Jackson. But the loss of edge rusher Joey Bosa to injury is significant. Stopping Josh Jacobs and the Raiders ground game will be key.
For the Raiders, success will hinge on establishing Josh Jacobs in the run game. If they can control the ball and the clock while keeping Herbert off the field, it will go a long way toward pulling off the upset. Defensively, Las Vegas must try to force turnovers and capitalize on any Chargers mistakes.
This should be a fairly high-scoring and entertaining divisional matchup. The Chargers are the better all-around team and are playing at home. But the Raiders will keep it close with a strong effort as they try to save their season.
Prediction: Chargers 34, Raiders 27
Herbert throws for 330 yards and 3 TDs while Ekeler adds 100 yards and a score. Jacobs runs for 80 yards and 1 TD. But Las Vegas struggles containing Keenan Allen and Mike Williams downfield. In the end, the Los Angeles Chargers do just enough to hold off their division rival and improve to 5-2 on the year.
Conclusion
The Los Angeles Chargers are rightfully favored by about a touchdown heading into their Week 6 home matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders. Led by Justin Herbert and a talented set of skill players, the Chargers have shown they can move the ball and put up points consistently. Their defense has also been solid, especially with new additions like Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson.
However, the Raiders are a desperate team hungry for a victory and have the offensive weapons to potentially keep this game competitive. Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams are capable of big games. But Raiders QB Derek Carr must avoid turnovers and Las Vegas will need some defensive stops against Herbert and the Chargers.
Look for the Chargers to pull away late for a 7-10 point win behind Herbert’s arm and their pass rush led by Mack. But don’t be surprised if the Raiders put up a fight, especially with revenge on their minds after losing to LA earlier this season. This AFC West rivalry should provide plenty of highlights and drama once again on Monday night.